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Economists React: Better China Data May Open Door for Reform
经济学家点评中国10月份经济数据
As Communist Party leaders gathered to map out the direction of China’s economic policy in the next decade, data released over the weekend painted a picture of steady growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Better economic prospects may give leaders at the Third Plenum more leeway to push for difficult structural reforms, like removing implicit subsidies for state-owned enterprises or weaning local governments off their dependence on land sales – though pessimists worry that a strong economy could also sap the Party’s sense of urgency.
在中共领导人召开会议制定未来10年中国经济政策走向之际，周末期间公布的经济数据描绘出中国经济稳步增长的一幕。经济前景改善或许为出席十八届三中全会的领导人在推动棘手的结构性改革方面（例如取消国有企业的隐性补贴或切断地方政府对土地财政的依赖）留出更多余地。但是悲观者担心经济走强也可能削弱结构改革的迫切性。
Industrial output grew 10.3% on-year in October, up from 10.2% a month earlier; retail sales held steady at 13.3% year-over-year growth; and inflation ticked up to 3.2%, above September’s level but within the government’s comfort zone. The only negative surprise was a slowdown in fixed-asset investment, which could herald slower growth ahead.
中国10月份工业增加值同比增长10.3%，增幅超过9月份的10.2%；零售额同比增长了13.3%，与前月持平；通货膨胀率扩大至3.2%，超过9月份，但是在政府的目标区间内。唯一的负面消息是固定资产投资放缓，这可能预示今后一段时间经济增长将减速。
Economists share their views:
经济学家们的观点如下（略微经过编辑）：
The October activity indicators suggest the growth recovery since the third quarter continues… However, infrastructure and real estate investments, which have been the major drivers of economic growth, started to cool off in recent months… In addition, despite the rebound in the third quarter, structural problems in the Chinese economy showed no improvement, and some may have even gotten worse. In the near term, given that the downside risk of economic growth is much smaller, we expect that the new leaders will shift the policy focus back to structural reform. While those reforms will benefit long-term growth, some (e.g. dealing with overcapacity and financial imbalances) will drag on economic growth in the near term. –Haibin Zhu, Grace Ng and Lu Jiang, J.P. Morgan
10月份的经济活动指标显示，自第三季度以来经济增长在持续升温。但是最近几个月，一直是经济增长重要拉动力的基础设施和房地产投资开始降温。此外，尽管第三季度经济增速有所加快，但是中国经济中存在的结构性问题并无进展，有些问题甚至变得更为突出。短期内，考虑到经济增长面临的下行风险要小的多，我们预计新一届领导人的政策重点将重新转向结构性改革。尽管从长期看，这些改革对经济增长有利，但是其中一些改革（例如解决产能过剩和金融失衡问题）将在短期内拖累经济增长。──摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)经济学家朱海斌、吴向红和Lu Jiang
Economic activity held up slightly better than expected in October, but in contrast to September, the oomph came more from exports than domestic demand… The continued strength in economic activity means there is little need for further policy support, while the subdued inflation also means little danger of immediate monetary tightening. If export demand recovers more strongly in coming quarters, the government can afford to ease up on policy support, most notably infrastructure investment, in 2014. Indeed, should the momentum of October’s export rebound continue in the coming months, there could be an upside to fourth-quarter GDP growth compared with our current forecast of 7.6%. –Donna Kwok, Tao Wang et al., UBS
10月份经济活动略好于预期，但与9月份相比，其动力更多是来自出口，而非内需。经济活动持续强劲意味着对进一步政策支持的需求很小，而通货膨胀较低也说明货币政策不大可能立即收紧。如果未来几个季度出口需求复苏更为强劲，政府可以在2014年放松政策支持力度，特别是基础设施投资。实际上，如果未来几个月仍延续10月份的出口反弹势头，我们可能将第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)升幅在目前7.6%的预期基础上进一步上调。──瑞银Donna Kwok、汪涛等
History shows that economic growth usually slows after Third Plenum meetings. We think the government is likely to meet or exceed public expectations at the [plenum] session… We believe reforms are the only way to avoid systemic crisis, rebalance the economy, and unleash China’s growth potential, so as to prevent the country from falling into the so called “middle-income trap…” That said, history shows that structural reforms, while good in the longer term, tend to slow growth in the near term. –Jian Chang, Jerry Peng and Serena Zhou, Barclays
历史情况显示，三中全会之后经济增速通常会放缓。我们认为，三中全会的成果很可能达到或超过公众预期。我们相信，只有通过改革，才能避免系统性危机，实现经济再平衡，释放中国的增长潜力，从而阻止中国陷入所谓的“中等收入陷阱”。不过，虽然历史经验表明结构性改革在长期内对经济有利，但短期内可能导致经济增长减速。──巴克莱(Barclays)常健、Jerry Peng和Serena Zhou
The biggest surprise from China’s weekend data release was the strength of industrial production. However, fixed-asset investment growth – which statistically leads GDP growth – continued to trend lower. The growth momentum seems to be holding up fairly well in the fourth quarter, but likely less so beyond that…. Activity data painted a similar picture to the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index report. Production was the only positive surprise, while more forward-looking indicators ceased to improve further, to say the least. –Wei Yao, Société Générale
中国周末公布的经济数据中，最令人意外的就是工业增加值的强劲表现。不过，尽管在统计上固定资产投资增长仍然是GDP增长的主要动力，但其趋势仍然是向下的。第四季度经济增长势头似乎相当强劲，但之后可能会有所减弱。官方的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)也反映出类似的情况。工业增加值是唯一超出预期的数据，而更具前瞻性的指标则停止进一步改善。──法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)姚炜
Overall growth momentum was maintained in October, allowing for a firmer macro stance. The exports recovery reported Friday surely helped… Overall investment momentum eased somewhat in recent months, with growth of manufacturing [fixed asset investment, or FAI] rising and real estate FAI growth declining, while growth of infrastructure FAI and consumption has been more stable. Also, with growth momentum sustained, the debates on economic policy during the Plenum of Nov. 9-12 can focus more squarely on reforms. –Louis Kuijs, RBS
10月份整体增长势头延续，宏观经济基础更为牢固。上周五数据中反映出的出口复苏当然提供了一些动力。近几个月整体投资动能有所缓解，制造业固定资产投资和房地产投资增速均放缓，而基础设施固定资产投资和消费增速则更加稳定。另外，由于增长势头延续，11月9-12日的三中全会上围绕经济政策讨论的焦点可能放在改革计划上。──苏格兰皇家银行集团(RBS)高路易(Louis Kuijs)
The government has managed to deliver stable economic data leading into the Communist Party Congress meeting… We believe monetary policy tightening has started, and that new bank loans and total social financing will decline in the fourth quarter from their high levels in the third, as GDP growth is on track to achieve the 7.5% target for 2013. We believe political pressures to deliver good macro numbers will lessen after the CPC meeting. Our low expectations on actual reform implementation for the CPC conference remain. –Zhiwei Zhang, Changchun Hua and Wendy Chen, Nomura
在三中全会召开前中国政府公布的经济数据表现稳定。我们认为货币政策紧缩周期已经启动，第四季度新增银行贷款和社会融资总量将从第三季度的高位下滑，2013年GDP增幅有望实现7.5%的目标。我们认为三中全会之后公布良好宏观经济数据的政治压力将减轻。我们对于会议切实推出改革措施的预期依然较低。──野村(Nomura)张智威、Changchun Hua和Wendy Chen
–Compiled by Richard Silk
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发表于 2024-10-30 03:15:59